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TREB Hosts Economic Summit, Releases New Consumer Survey Data


TORONTO, June 23, 2017Today, the Toronto Real Estate Board will host the second of two Regional Economic Summits in York Region (Durham Region hosted on July 15) to discuss a market update as well as a TREB-commissioned consumer survey conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs. This update comes on the heels of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan announcement and the change in market conditions relative to the first quarter.

TREB will be releasing a forecast update at an early morning media briefing event, at the Park Hyatt in Toronto on July 6, to report on new survey data, MLS® Sales through June, and speculation on the impact of historically low interest rates.

Highlights of the new Ipsos consumer research, conducted from May 23-29, on home buyers and home sellers includes:

Likely Home Sellers

  • 30 per cent of GTA households are very likely (12 per cent) or somewhat likely (18 per cent) to list their house over the next year.
  • 15 per cent of households said that the Fair Housing Plan was the primary reason why they would list their home for sale over the next year.
  • Close to 80 per cent of households who said they were likely to list their home said they would be purchasing another home. 

“The Ipsos survey results suggest that many households plan to list their home for sale over the next year. We have certainly reported an increase in listings. However, it is interesting to note that almost 80 per cent of these households will be purchasing another home. This means that these households are not exiting the home ownership market, but, instead, changing the type or location of home they will own,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

Likely Home Buyers

  • 35 per cent of households surveyed indicated that they were very likely (13 per cent) or likely (22 per cent) to purchase a home over the next year.  Taking into account the margin of error, buying intentions were similar to what was reported from the Ipsos survey conducted for TREB in the fall of 2016.
  • There was a marked decline in the number of intending first-time buyers compared to the fall.  In the May survey, 40 per cent of likely buyers indicated they would be first-time buyers, which was down from 53 per cent in Ipsos’ fall survey.
  • 10 per cent of households who said they would NOT purchase a home over the next year said the Fair Housing Plan was the key factor in this decision (one per cent) or a contributing factor (nine per cent).

“It makes sense that some first-time buyers have decided to at least temporarily put their decision to purchase a home on hold. First-time buyers are more flexible, and can take a wait and see approach. They could also re-enter the market quickly once they make the decision to purchase,” continued Mercer.

“While we have certainly experienced a dip in sales and an increase in listings over the past two months, the Ipsos survey results suggest that there are still many consumers considering the purchase of a home over the next year. This could reflect the fact that new policies, like those contained in the Ontario Fair Housing Plan, can have an initial psychological impact before long-term impacts become clear,” said TREB President Larry Cerqua.

On July 6, 2017, TREB will be releasing a market outlook at a media briefing event to report on new survey data, MLS® Sales through June, and speculation on the impact of historically low interest rates.

TREB News: PUBLIC

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